Commentator Adam Pope believes that a 17th place finish for Leeds United next season would not be classed as a failure.
Leeds managed to avoid relegation with aplomb, after Daniel Farke managed to turn around their season over the winter period, finishing 14th while being pegged as favourites for relegation for large chunks of the campaign.
Pope feels that it takes at least three years to become an established side at Premier League level.
Stressing that the probability of relegation in a second season is astronomical, Pope reiterated that avoiding relegation should be viewed as a success in itself, and hence, even a ‘17th-placed finish should not be marked as failure’.
Pope said on the BBC: “I think the percentage chance of being relegated in your second season in the Premier League remains so high that a 17th-placed finish should not be marked as failure this time around.
“I know West Ham went down with 39 points, but, the truth is, sides coming up struggle to reach 30 points, never mind 40.
“It takes three tough years to become an established Premier League side.”
Pope’s argument holds water if the examples of Brighton, Bournemouth or Aston Villa are anything to go by, considering how long it takes to become an established top-division side.
There have been 13 instances of a side going down in the second season after coming up, giving Leeds, or Sunderland, a probability of around 1 in 8 to be relegated.
The most spectacular of those 13 instances might be the case of Ipswich Town, when they suffered relegation in the same season as they were taking on the likes of Ronaldo, Adriano and Alvaro Recoba of Inter Milan in the UEFA Cup in 2002.
